|
| I- Introduction to Data Analysis and Decision Making
1- Technology makes it possible to:
A- collect huge amount of data
B- give power and responsibility to analyze data and make decisions
2- Use quantitative methods to analyze data
II- Overview of Chapters
1- Methods- to analyze and decide
A- Data Analysis
a-Description
b-Inference
c-Relationship
B- Decision Making
a-Optimization- with no uncertainty
b-Decision Analysis- with uncertainty
c-Sensitivity Analysis
C- Uncertainty- key aspect of business problems
a-Measuring
b-Modeling
C1- Uncertainty and probability relationship
a- Binomial Distribution
b- Normal Distribution
c- Poisson Distribution
C2- Simulation
2- Sampling and Statistical Inference
3- Quality Control
A- Control charts- for checking if a process in control
4- Regression Analysis- study of relations between variables
5- Series Analysis and Forecasting
A- Regression base method--one or more time series variable use
B- Extrapolation base methodhistorical patterns a time series variables
6- Optimization linear programming
A- Build spreadsheet model to relate all relevant quantities.
B- Find Optimal solution
7- Computer Simulation Modelsanalyze business decisions that have some degree of uncertainty
III- The Software
1- Excel- spreadsheet package
2- Solver Add-in
3- StatPro Add-in- easy construction of histograms, scatterplots and time series plots
4- RandFns Add-in
5- Solver Table Add-in
6- Decision Tools Suite
7- @Risk
8- Precision Tree- graphical decision tree
9- TopRank
10- Best Fit
11- Risk Review
IV- Modeling and Models
A- Modelabstraction of a real problem
1-Graphical Models
2-Algebraic Models
3- Spreadsheet Models- relate quantities with algebraic equations with cell formulas
B- Modeling Process
1-Define the problem
2- Collect and summarize data
3- Formulate a model
4- Verify the model
a- Check if model is valid for current situation
b- Enter input parameters and check if outputs are reasonable
5- Select one or more suitable decisions
6- Present the results to the organization
7- Implement model and update it through time
|
|
|